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Monthly Predictions: June

Posted by JE Powell

Here it is, the third installment of my Montly Predicitons where I try to predict the Cardinals record for the month and overall record. So far I have been exactly right in predicting a 16-11 record in April and a 17-12 record for May. However, I will also predict that this will be the first time this year that I am wrong and will not be correct in June. Law of averages and all that.

Cards vs. SF Giants, 2 Games Series (last two of a series that started in May)

I am going with the same prediction of the first two games of the four game series and saying 1-1.

Cards vs. Chicago Cubs, 3 Game series

I predicted a 1-2 finish against the Cubs last month and I am going to predict a 1-2 series for the Cards again this month. Mostly because I hope by predicting the Cards actually win the series.

Cards at Houston Astros, 3 Game series

I cannot predict a sweep for the Cards for a third straight series against the ‘Stros, but I will predict a 2-1 finish against them in this series.

Cards at Milwaukee Brewers, 3 Game Series

The Brew Crew is playing very well right now, but I am going to predict a 2-1 series win for the Cardinals in this one.  The Brewers are not a very good road team and this series is in St. Louis.

Cards at Washington Nationals, 3 Game Series

Pretty simple prediction on this one 2-1.

Cards vs.  Kansas City Royals, 3 Game Series

The last time these two teams faced each other, back in May, the Cards won the series 2-1, but it was hard fought. However, I think the Cards will go 2-1 again, but a little easier this time. KC isn’t playing that well right now, so Cards win the series.

Cards vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 3 Game Series

When these two teams met back in May, the Cards swept a two game series against the Phillies, but I don’t think the Phils will go down that easily again. 1-2, Cards lose the series.

Cards vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 3 Games Series

Jose Bautista is doing his best Albert Pujols impression this season (perhaps better as he hit 54 HR in 2010 and Pujols has never broke 50). However, the Blue Jays are mostly a one man show. Cards 2-1.

Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles, 3 Game Series

Baltimore is an improved team this season over last year, but right now I think the Cardinals are a better team. Cards 2-1

So, I am predicting a 15-11 record with an overall record of 48-34. Tune in next month where I will have a “I was wrong, but right about being wrong” post if I am, in fact, wrong.

Just like yesterday, please excuse the grammatical and spelling errors as I again sacrificed accuracy for content.

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I Was Right! Sort Of…

Posted By JE Powell

Back before the baseball season started, I did a prediction post about how I thought the Cardinals would fare in each series, you can read it here, if you wish. In the second to last paragraph, I said I thought the Cardinals would go 16-11 (plus or minus 11, you know, just to give myself some wiggle room). At the end of April , 2011, the Cardinals are, in fact, 16-11. So, I was right!

However…

I only accurately predicted the outcome of  4 of the 9 series the Cards had in April, for a .444 average. But since this is primarily a baseball blog, a .444 batting average is pretty damn good.

My predictions:

Cards take 2 from the Padres. NOPE! Cards only won one game.

Cards take 2 from the Pirates. NOPE! Pirates took two.

Cards only win one against the Giants. YES! Well more like “yes (frowny face)”. The Cards lost the first two games of the series in the bottom of the ninth. Had they had a pitcher capable of closing a game at that point, they could have swept.

Cards take two of three from the Diamond backs. YES! This was the series when the bats came alive and began to take the National League by storm.

Cards and Dodgers split, 2-2. NOPE! And I am glad I got this one wrong. Cards took 3 of 4 and nearly swept the Dodgers.

Cards win two against the Nationals. YES!

Cards take two of three against the Reds. YES!

Cards sweep Astros. NOPE! They did take two of three from Houston, though.

Cards lose last two games of April to the Braves. NOPE! Another one I am glad to have been wrong on. In fact, the Cards one both of the April games against the Braves.

So, while I may have been below .500 on the predictions that led up to my 16-11 prediction, I was spot on for the overall record.

Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad

Posted By JE powell

The Cardinals finished up a three-games-in-two-days (there was a rainout on Wednesday) series with the Washington Nationals on Thursday going 2-1. After the last out of the series, the Cardinals found themselves in a tie for first place with the Cincinatti Reds, whom they host for a three game set this weekend.

Matt Holliday hit his second home run of the year in the series and Pujols hit a couple of more. The Cardinals could have won all three games if Jake Westbrook had not allowed 6 runs in the 3rd inning of the first game of the series. It’s still early in the year, but among the five starters, Westbrook looks like the weak link. But he very well could turn it around. In the the second game, Mitchell Boggs got his first career save and looked pretty good doing it, too. Over all, I think the series was pretty successful for the Cards and they are really starting to look like a team that can contend.

As of today, the Cardinals are 2nd in runs scored in all of MLB (104, three runs behind the Reds), 1st in batting average in MLB (.292, .015 ahead of next closest team, the Cubs), 1st in MLB in OBP (.360), 3rd in SLG (.451), 2nd in OPS (.812), 5th in home runs (22), and 1st in total bases (306). Not bad for a team that stuggled to hit and score runs the first 8 games of the year. They are going to need solid pitching and good run support if they are going to manage at least 2 out of 3 against the Reds, which should allow them to stay in first place.

The Cardinals were very good against the Reds last year going 12-6 and they are going to need to continue that this year to contend for the division and a playoff spot. Stay tuned to see what the weekend holds.

Monthly Predicitons: April

Posted by JE Powell

I want to take a look ahead to the schedule the Cards have for April (I am counting the one game in March) to see what kind of win loss record they will have when May 1st comes around. I am going to list their schedule by series and you can go here for a complete day-by-day schedule, if you are so inclined. My goal is to have a Monthly Prediction post up before the first of each month and take a look at the games ahead.

San Diego Padres, 3 Game Series:

I think the Cards can go 2-1 in this series. San Diego’s projected starting line-up doesn’t have anyone who hit better than .268 last season (Orlando Hudson) or hit more than 17 home runs (former Cardinal Ryan Ludwick). With the loss of Adrian Gonzalez (via trade with the Boston Red Sox) the Padres lost a near .300 hitter with 30+ home run and 100+ RBI capability. As of right now, they do not appear to have a team that has the ability to put many runs on the board each game.

Their pitching doesn’t appear to be that great right now, either, outside of Mat Latos perhaps. Latos won 14 games last year with a 2.92 ERA and 189 strikeouts and he’s only 23 years old, so he could become a top-tier ace. Clayton Richard had 14 wins as well, but with a 3.75 ERA. He did have a decent 153 K’s, though. Then there is Heath Bell, who posted 47 saves last season with 86 strike outs in only 70 innings pitched. So, if the Padres can get a lead going into the 9th inning, Heath Bell’s history suggests that they will hold the lead and win.

Pittsburgh Pirates, 3 Game Series:

I see another 2 out of 3 for the Cardinals. The Pirates have some young, talented players, especially Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones, but they are still a young team. A team that finished the season 57-105 last year. Their projected starting line-up has several players that could be All-Stars one day, but as has been the case more often than not the last several years, they will probably be All-Stars on other teams.

The Pirates biggest problem is pitching. Their projected opening day starter, Paul Maholm, went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA last year. That’s barely a fifth starter on most teams. The Pirates projected five starters went a combined 26-54 last year, with Ross Ohlendorf going 1-11 and Charlie Morton going 2-12 (with a 7.57 ERA, yikes!).

The main reason I give the Cards a loss to the Pirates is that it seems like the Cardinals have a tendency to lose games against relatively bad pitching. I don’t have specific evidence, just past experience in being a Cardinals fan.

San Fransisco Giants, 3 Game Series:

This will be a tough series and I think the Cards will lose 2 of 3. The San Fransisco Giants are the defending World Series Champions and they have a shot to repeat. Buster Posey is coming of off a Rookie of The Year award and Pablo Sandoval and Aubrey Huff are two very capable hitters. Edgar Renteria has gone on to the Reds, but was replaced by former MVP Miguel Tejada, who may be in the twilight of his baseball career, but can still perform.

Which brings us to the one of the top two or three pitching staffs in the National League. Tim Lincecum won the Cy Young award in 2008 and 2009 and could win more in the near future. Matt Cain is a solid number 2 starter and could be an ace on many other teams. Together Lincecum and Cain combined for 29 wins and 408 strikeouts last year. The Cards may not have to face Lincecum in this series because the first game of the Giants series is the seventh of the year for both teams, so Lincecum will more than likely have pitched the day before. That’s why I think the Cards will win one. If Lincecum does pitch, there could be a sweep.

Arizona Diamondbacks, 3 Game Series:

This is a team to look out for this year with a very good young core of players in Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, and Chris Young. I think that the D-Backs should be able to put some runs up on the board. However, I think the Cards will go 2-1 against this team. Here is a look at their depth chart.

Record-wise their pitching didn’t look to good last year, except for perhaps Daniel Hudson who posted an 8-2 record with a 2.42 ERA in only 14 games. If the offense can put up some runs, I look for pitchers such as Ian Kennedy and Joe Saunders to win 11-12 games, which would be an improvement over last season.

Los Angeles Dodgers, 4 Game Series:

I predict a split in this series. Here’s a look at the Dodgers depth chart. Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney are three very capable hitters, but at 37 Casey Blake is starting to decline. If he can hold up, he may very well be productive. The addition of Juan Uribe will certainly help, assuming that can put up another 20+ HR, 80+ RBI season. I don’t think this team is capable of winning the NL West or even getting the wild card, but I think they will be around .500 when the season ends.

Their pitching looks to be pretty decent this year. All five of their starters won 10+ games last year and Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley could both win 15 games. If those stats hold up, you are looking at a starting rotation that’s capable of winning 55 to 60 games. Not to shabby.

Washington Nationals, 3 Game Series:

Win 2, lose 1. The Nats added Jayson Werth, but lost Adam Dunn, though the acquisition of Adam LaRoche will certainly help the team. The Nationals have done a pretty good job of improving the offense of the team. Their probable starting line-up has former Cardinal Rick Ankiel in left, though he has a tendency to strike out and does not seem to be able to his left-handed hitters, so he may platoon in left. Center fielder Nyjer Morgan can steal some bases and run out some bunts for hits, but other than that his bat doesn’t have much pop.

Their pitching isn’t really any better either. Livan Hernandez could be their opening day pitcher and he went 10-12 last season. I think one of Washington’s bottom of the rotation pitchers will sneak a win in this series.

Cincinnati Reds, 3 Game Series:

I have touched upon the Reds in an earlier blog, so I am not going to go to in-depth here. There Reds have reigning MVP Joey Votto and the team is coming off of a sweep in the NLDS. The Reds won the division by five games over the Cards last year and will be in the mix to repeat as division champs this year. The Cards had the Reds number last year winning 12 of 18 and I look for that to continue this year. 2-1.

Houston Astros, 3 Game Series:

The Astros had a nice stretch from June 1st on last year where they had a winning record in that time period and they may be able to build on that this year, but I look for them to be at the bottom of the barrel this year along with the Pirates. Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee have some pop in their bats and Michael Bourn is a very speedy guy, so this team may put some runs up on the board and sting you when you aren’t looking, but I am predicting a 3-0 sweep of this team. This series is in Houston, but I just have a feeling that brooms will be involved.

Atlanta Braves, 2 Games of 3 Game Series in April:

The Cards will play to games of a three game series to finish out April. The Braves look to be an offensively improved team with the addition of Dan Uggla, though I would certainly not call him a defensive improvement. I think Snoopy is a better defensive player. The Braves outfield is looking pretty good with Martin Prado in left, Nate McClouth in center, and Jason Heyward in right. These three guys are capable of power and hitting for average. If Chipper Jones can stay healthy, look for  this team to be in the playoff hunt for a wild card spot (The Phillies pitching may be to strong for any other team to seriously think about winning the NL East). 0-2

April Overall:

So, my prediction for the month of April is the Cardinals going 16-11, plus or minus 11. The Cards, I think, have a good team and will continue to do what they have done in years past be winning 16+ games in April and then have slightly worse months (record-wise) in May and June (than they did in April), but I will take a closer look at those months when they get nearer.

So, there you have it, a minimally researched outlook at the month to come with some mediocre analysis and sub-par links. Do you kind of get the feeling that you are watching Saturday Baseball on Fox after reading this?